As a harsh critic of our president's policies myself I could but concur. However there is a more to the tale than our president and these three nations, and more to the tale than this moment in time. As a schoolboy in the 1960s it was science, math, and the "scientific" aspects of English (grammar, spelling) that captured my fancy. History was just one of those subjects I had to study, and whereas I'd earn placement into honors classes in math and science, McHistory was all the administrators saw fit for this student. I got my As and Bs and that was that. Little was I to know that decades later my fascination with history would grow, and it would double as a pragmatic tool for forecasting.
As much as I agree with Lisa, I claim that with or without Obama the world becomes more dangerous. We Americans – myself among them – tend to view the world through America-centric prisms. This is not per se a problem, but I find it important to look at the big picture as well. My brother is fluent in German and frequently reads the German media to fill in his own view of the world. I've found other publications to help myself along. What I learned and some of my conclusions follow.
Mass psychology is the motive force behind all human events, from the stock market, to our economies, and to our cooperation in peacetime and aggression during times of war.
When times are prosperous, leaders make nice and people make nice. In the U.S. and in many developed nations elsewhere the early 1980s brought prosperity in spades. Reaganomics whatever that was didn't make things good; American businesspeople and their employees did. Internationally, during the 1980s the insular Soviet Union collapsed, a divided Germany united, and the EU solidified to the extent that such diverse societies could, peaking circa 2000.
But there's an ebb and flow to mass psychology, a phenomenon of nature humans will never undo no matter how hard they try. We can't but take the bad with the good, and we can't but weather out the storms or die trying. These are lessons from history, and woe unto those who don't learn from them.
History does indeed repeat itself, albeit never with such precision that one could follow it unfolding yet again step by step
After the good times crest, the pendulum reverses its swing as it has done for centuries. The Roman Republic (SPQR) fell to the Caesars and ultimately collapsed entirely. Over the course of our own history since the American Revolution the rest of the world has endured so much upheaval that a globe manufactured in 1800 would be but a curious artifact useful to a teacher of history, yet mostly useless for teaching contemporary geography.
I spend much of my spare time contemplating what's happening in the word and what events in history might well repeat. Some folks call me a pessimist, and perhaps some pessimism factors into my analysis. We're all human and subject to thinking like, well, humans. That being said, there's a good case to be made for growing animosities world-wide, with rifts deepening and nations allying for whatever reasons their leaders choose.
One need not hold a degree in political science to draw conclusions from world history. Merely reading, listening, and thinking critically can take anyone into being well informed in certain areas. Over a decade ago I stumbled onto a book for sale on eBay. Published roughly a century ago by a historian, a Professor Pribram at the University of Vienna, this book was Volume II of The Secret Treaties of Austria-Hungary 1879-1914, translated presumably from German into English and republished by the Harvard University Press in 1921. I bid and won, and for the life of me I can't remember why because aside from its title and perhaps a synopsis from the seller I didn't know what I was purchasing. Now I do.
A big topic in McHistory was world war, and not surprisingly because the Second World War was a mere twenty years in the past and many veteran survivors of the First World War (née the Great War) – my paternal grandfather among them – were alive and well. One topic stuck with me for decades: that of underlying causes and immediate causes of global war. National leaders don't just wake up one day and say, "Let's start a war." Animosities must build over time, and nations must choose to ally themselves with others for whatever purposes they seek to achieve.
The Pribram book is fascinating as it delves deeply into the machinations among leaders in Europe. The title contains the word "secret" because at the time these treaties were being forged, secrecy was paramount. Only after the war did the information in the book see the light of day, and Dr. Pribram had proven himself to be a diligient and insightful historian in researching his topic and presenting it in a most readable way. His own account ends at Page 180, and from the on to the end at Page 259 are three appendices with reproductions of documents detailing the treaties themselves and private communications among the national leaders who forged them.
It's well established that the assassination on 28 June 1914 of Archduke Ferdinand of Austria was the immediate cause of WWI, but the underlying causes arose over decades. Recalling that my book is Volume II, it begins with The First Treaty of the Triple Alliance established in 1882, ergo the war was at least thirty years in the making before overt aggression broke out.
A brief review of American history reveals economic booms and busts, natural phenomena of mass psychology. But looking closer we observe other events surrounding them.
- In the 1840s, the stock market collapsed, our economy collapsed, and the Civil War erupted.
- In the 1930s, the stock market collapsed, our economy collapsed, and WWII erupted.
Since emerging from the economic doldrums of the 1970s, the USA entered quite a boom, lasting through the presidencies of Reagan, GHWB, and Clinton. But the wheels began to come off during Clinton's last yera in office, 2000. The market took a dive, the dot-com boom went bust, and under at least one school of thought the Great Bull Market was over.
But that was just the opening act. Our world as Americans changed on September 11, 2001. Our federal government exhibited frightening behavior such as I'd never seen in my 55 years as a citizen. Before we knew it the Patriot Act was law and our military was shipping out to begin two foolish armed conflicts in the Middle East. Then the politicians began to polarize, each side pointing fingers at the others, both refusing to address the problems in their own back yards. The market came back, but although it walked and quacked like the Great Bull Market – complete with indexes like the DJIA eclipsing old highs – it wasn't. The big players of Wall Street though, steeped in two decades of rising prices saw what they wanted to see. As a result of investor psychology and nearly unkillable hope, bear market rallies are notorious for recapitulating fashions of the previous bull market. In the 1990s Yahoo! was a darling of the Street. Come the new milennium the big boys love Google, and as well they should. I'm a software guy and Google is one helluva company to sport on a geek's resume.
Economically though the rot was surfacing. Bubble after bubble went burst. The real estate market was perhaps the most alarming and devastating. The unholy trinity of Fannie-Freddie, greedy and reckless bankers, and greedy and/or stupid homebuyers had collectively created a time bomb of epic proportions. It was only a matter of time until the house of cards collapsed.
After peaking circa 2007, the market took the lead again and headed south like few have witnessed. Anyone foolish enough to have bet his/her retirement funds in a casino received a stinging lesson. Did they learn? Of course not.
Hope as I remarked before is nearly unkillable. Since March 2009 our markets have soared so quickly that Joe and Jane Investor are back with a vengeance. This is evident from the current spate of TV adverts from E*Trade, TD Waterhouse, et al. These companies aren't stupid. They won't place an ad unless they know there are enough potential customers to pay for the air time.
Economically the nation continues to struggle and don't let the talking heads from the White House or their pawns at MSNBC and CNN tell you any different. FOXNews business reporter Neil Cavuto is a sharpie and I figure nobody's fool, but even he could misread the tea leaves.
As for the market it's gearing up for another leg down, repeating the historic collapse of the 1930s but in a different form so few will grasp the implications until it's too late.
Across the pond is yet another repetition of history: the EU is unraveling. German leaders reluctantly acceded to pleas to bail out Greece. After witnessing the rioting by the Greeks it's plausible that the Germans were concerned about that spreading to other nations. But bailouts merely stave off the inevitable. Spain and Portugal are circling the bowl as well.
In conclusion it would do us well to recall that Europe was a flashpoint for the first two world wars. History could very well repeat itself and Europe could become a flashpoint for WWIII.
As people far out of the loop from our our Department of State and foreign ministers abroad, we individual Americans can but wonder what secret treaties are being forged today.
